Fall 2006 Breakdown-FOX

Note: This is a series of five articles analyzing the major networks going into the upfront presentations in mid-May. Look for a new article every few days. If you'd like to see my thoughts on CBS, click here. The CW's article is here. Today, I analyze FOX.

• Renewed For 2006-2007: 24, American Dad, American Idol, Bones, Family Guy, King of the Hill, Prison Break, The Simpsons
  
• Solid Bets For Renewal: America's Most Wanted, COPS, House, The O.C., MADtv
  
• On the Bubble: Nanny 911, Skating With Celebrities, Trading Spouses: Meet Your New Mommy, Unan1mous, The War At Home
  
• As Good As Gone: The Bernie Mac Show, Free Ride, The Loop, Stacked
  
• Already Cancelled: Arrested Development, Head Cases, Killer Instinct, Kitchen Confidential, Malcolm in the Middle, Reunion, That '70s Show
  

• New Series Picked Up For 2006-2007: On the Lot
  
• Possible Shows For 2006-2007: The 12th Man, 13 Graves, American Crime, Drive, Faceless, Julie Reno: Bounty Hunter, That Guy, Til Death, Vanished, The Winner, Worst Week of My Life

The Skinny-FOX generally starts out slow in the fall but then picks up momentum as their big guns 24 and American Idol premiere. This season, they made some small splashes with decent ratings winners like Prison Break and Bones. FOX will look to continue that success. They have probably one of the top comedy pilots in Til Death. With a big name like Brad Garrett attached to the show, I don't see any way this comedy doesn't get picked up. FOX has also already picked up the next big Mark Burnett project, On the Lot, which will be like American Idol for movies. With two big names (Burnett and Steven Spielberg) this should be a huge hit. I'm just not sure if it will make it onto the fall schedule. The rest of the slate looks relatively weak but FOX doesn't need to fill as many holes as some of the other networks.

My Predicted Schedule:

Sunday: 7 PM-Football Post-Games/Animated Encores, 7:30 PM-King of the Hill, 8 PM-The Simpsons, 8:30 PM-The War At Home, 9 PM-Family Guy, 9:30 PM-American Dad
This is one of the strongest nights for FOX so I don't see it being broken up. The first three programs seem locked in and Family Guy will likely keep its slot. The War At Home has done a pretty good job holding onto The Simpsons audience so I think it will get renewed. American Dad has been renewed but I'm not positive it will keep its slot.

Monday: 8 PM-13 Graves, 9 PM-Prison Break/24 Wheel
13 Graves is one of FOX's potential shows getting the most buzz. It is also a decent fit for these two thrillers. I think that FOX would be wise to just have thirteen episodes of Prison Break to all air in the fall. Then it makes room for another day of 24.

Tuesday: 8 PM-Bones, 9 PM-House (American Idol in January)
Bones has already been renewed and it will get its old Tuesday slot. House is pretty much a certainty to get another season. American Idol has a chance to move to Thursday but I think FOX will keep its Tuesday/Wednesday setup. In January, House moves up to 8 PM and American Idol gets the 9 PM slot. Bones moves to Wednesday.

Wednesday: 8 PM-The O.C., 9 PM-Unan1mous, 9:30 PM-Til Death
This isn't a very compatible day but oh well. I think FOX will get The O.C. off of Thursdays were it is getting killed. It will serve as a decent lead-in for Unan1mous which has done well (even though it gets the benefit of the American Idol audience). I think that despite dropping a lot of Idol's audience, it will get another season. Then FOX will cap off the night with one of the most anticipated comedies Til Death. This should be an instant hit.

Thursday: 8 PM-American Crime, 9 PM-On the Lot (if its ready) or Drive
Putting the potential hit On the Lot up against CSI is incredibly risky but I think it can take several million viewers from the crime drama. If it isn't ready for the fall, Drive gets the nod. American Crime will be FOX's latest attempt at launching a successful crime drama.

Friday: 8 PM-The 12th Man, 8:30 PM-The Winner, 9 PM-Nanny 911/Trading Spouses Wheel
After several unsuccessful drama launches on Friday, FOX does things differently with two comedies with potential.

Saturday: 8 PM-COPS, 9 PM-America's Most Wanted, 11 PM-MADtv
This is one of the easiest nights to program. COPS and America's Most Wanted have been one of the few Saturday success stories and MADtv draws a decent amount of viewers.

Closing-FOX has a couple of hyped up shows in On the Lot and Til Death but the rest of its potential new shows lack luster. Luckily, there aren't a whole lot of holes to fill. Shows like Prison Break, House, and Bones can hold the fort down until powerhouses like 24 and American Idol start their seasons.