Fall 2006 Breakdown-ABC

Note: This is a series of five articles analyzing the major networks going into the upfront presentations in mid-May. Look for a new article every few days. If you'd like to see my thoughts on CBS, click here. The CW's article is here and FOX's is here. Today, I analyze ABC.

• Renewed For 2006-2007: As of yet, nothing.
  
• Solid Bets For Renewal: America's Funniest Home Videos, The Bachelor, Boston Legal, Dancing With the Stars, Desperate Housewives, Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, George Lopez, Grey's Anatomy, Lost, Wife Swap
  
• On the Bubble: According to Jim, American Inventor, Commander in Chief, The Evidence, Freddie, Hope & Faith, Invasion, Less Than Perfect, Miracle Workers, Sons & Daughters, Supernanny, What About Brian, 20/20, In Justice
  
• As Good As Gone: Crumbs, Rodney, Jake in Progress
  
• Already Cancelled: Alias, Emily's Reasons Why Not, Hot Properties, The Night Stalker
  

• New Series Picked Up For 2006-2007: In Case of Emergency, Masters of Science Fiction
  
• Possible Shows For 2006-2007: 20 Questions, 60 Minute Man, Brothers & Sisters, Day Break, Drift, Him & Us, Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Secrets of a Small Town, Six Degrees, Untitled Bonnie Hunt Project, Untitled Patricia Heaton Project, Untitled Shonda Rhimes Project, Women of a Certain Age

The Skinny-ABC is probably the most wide open in terms of scheduling. While they have four or five solid hits, the rest of the schedule is in shambles. Their comedy situation is just sad and it doesn't look like it will get much better this year. Only Him & Us and the untitled Bonnie Hunt and Patricia Heaton projects look like they could be hits. The drama situation is much better with solid-looking projects like Mr. & Mrs. Smith, 60 Minute Man, Brothers & Sisters, Secrets of a Small Town, and the untitled Shonda Rhimes pilot. Other than a few spots, almost anything could happen on ABC's schedule.

My Predicted Schedule:

Sunday: 7 PM-America's Funniest Home Videos, 8 PM-Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, 9 PM-Desperate Housewives, 10 PM-Secrets of a Small Town
ABC's likely move of Grey's Anatomy to Monday is risky but I think that Secrets of a Small Town may actually be an even better fit for Desperate Housewives. The other three veteran shows are great fits for Sunday and more than likely won't be moved. Even without Grey's Anatomy this should be ABC's strongest night.

Monday: 8 PM-Untitled Patricia Heaton Project, 8:30 PM-Him & Us, 9 PM-Grey's Anatomy, 10 PM-The Bachelor/Wife Swap wheel
ABC will once again try to start off Monday's with a block of comedies. I'm putting two new comedies with beloved stars here. They are probably also ABC's best chances at finding a hit comedy. Patricia Heaton should have good enough name recognition to draw in viewers and Tony Head (of Buffy the Vampire Slayer) has a built-in cult audience that should follow him to Him & Us. Grey's Anatomy moves to Monday and should take over the 9 PM hour. It will also provide a nice audience for the reality wheel of The Bachelor and Wife Swap.

Tuesday: 8 PM-George Lopez, 8:30 PM-Untitled Bonnie Hunt Project, 9 PM-According to Jim, 9:30 PM-Freddie or Sons & Daughters (I have no idea which ABC prefers), 10 PM-Boston Legal
Tuesday is traditionally a night of comedies for ABC and I'm not changing that. George Lopez is the top ABC comedy in terms of ratings so it will lead off Tuesday. Then comes another ABC comedy with name recognition, According to Jim (which struggled this year but will probably still get another season), and either Freddie or Sons & Daughters (or if the development slate is good, another new comedy). Neither Freddie or Sons & Daughters did particularly well but due to ABC's comedy problems they may have to stay another year.

Wednesday: 8 PM-Masters of Science Fiction/Mr. & Mrs. Smith wheel, 9 PM-Lost, 10 PM-60 Minute Man
Wednesday will be a night of science fiction for ABC. Masters of Science Fiction should get a nice cult audience and will be a great lead-in for Lost. Mr. & Mrs. Smith won't be ready for the fall but it should be spring's hottest new show. 60 Minute Man is one of ABC's better looking drama pilots so it gets the nod at 10 PM. Also of note, ABC may do something similar to FOX's treatment of 24 for Lost this year. If that happens, I think Masters of Science Fiction will take the 9 PM hour until Lost is ready and another new drama will take the 8 PM slot instead.

Thursday: 8 PM-Dancing With the Stars/American Inventor wheel, 9 PM-Untitled Shonda Rhimes Project, 10 PM-Brothers & Sisters
Dancing With the Stars beat Survivor earlier in the year so I think it will stay there next season. American Inventor will be shown in between seasons of Dancing. Shonda Rhimes is ABC's next J.J. Abrams so I think her pilot is almost a sure pickup. Brothers & Sisters has a large assortment of name actors and actresses so I think it will get the 10 PM spot.

Friday: 8 PM-Dancing With the Stars Results, 8:30 PM-In Case of Emergency, 9 PM-Drift, 10 PM-20/20
In Case of Emergency is the only comedy already picked up so I think it will get a good slot after the Dancing With the Stars results show.

Saturday: 8 PM-Grey's Anatomy Repeats, 9 PM-New Show Repeats, 10 PM-New Show Repeats
ABC hasn't used Saturdays for new programming in a very long time so I don't see that changing.

Closing-ABC is a pretty big question mark. Sure they have Desperate Housewives, Grey's Anatomy, and Lost but they also have a whole lot of holes in their lineup. The state of their comedies is embarassing and it doesn't look like it will get much better this season. Luckily, several dramas on their slate look very promising. This was easily the hardest lineup to assemble and I'm sure that the ABC executives are having a hard time as well.