Fall 2006 Breakdown-NBC

Note: This is the last of a series of five articles analyzing the major networks going into the upfront presentations in mid-May. Look for a new article every few days. If you missed any of my other posts, here are the links to them: CBS, The CW, FOX, and ABC.

• Renewed For 2006-2007: The Apprentice, The Biggest Loser, Crossing Jordan, ER, Las Vegas, Law & Order, Law & Order: Criminal Intent, Law & Order: Special Victim's Unit, Medium, My Name Is Earl, The Office, Sunday Night Football
  
• Solid Bets For Renewal: Scrubs, Deal or No Deal, Saturday Night Live, Dateline
  
• On the Bubble: Teachers, Most Outrageous Moments, Windfall, Conviction, Surface, Treasure Hunters, America's Got Talent, Last Comic Standing
  
• As Good As Gone: E-Ring, Fear Factor, Four Kings, Joey, Thick and Thin, Three Wishes
  
• Already Cancelled: The Apprentice: Martha Stewart, The Book of Daniel, Celebrity Cooking Showdown, Heist, Inconceivable, The West Wing, Will & Grace
  

• New Series Picked Up For 2006-2007: The Black Donnellys, Football Night in America, Kidnapped, Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip
  
• Possible Shows For 2006-2007: 100 Things To Do Before I Die, 20 Good Years, Andy Barker, P.I., Friday Night Lights, Heroes, Lipstick Jungle

The Skinny-NBC is in the most trouble of any network. Most of its hits are aging and they haven't found any lately except for Deal or No Deal and My Name is Earl. Earl should last awhile but Deal or No Deal will be worn out in a few months. It's sad that NBC has to wear out a hit game show so quickly but they are just that desperate. Luckily, NBC probably has the best development slate of the season. Heroes may be their breakout Lost-esque hit. Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip is by well-known Aaron Sorkin. Kidnapped looks like the next Prison Break (and its already been picked up). We could see an NBC renaissance similar to ABC's in 2004.

My Predicted Schedule:

Sunday (September): 7 PM-Football Night in America, 8 PM-Sunday Night Football
Sunday (January): 7 PM-Dateline NBC, 8 PM-The Apprentice, 9 PM-America's Got Talent/Treasure Hunters/Windfall/Last Comic Standing (whichever does the best in the summer), 10 PM-The Biggest Loser

Football takes up the entire night until January. Then I have NBC going with a reality night. They will kill of the last season of The Apprentice at 8. Then comes a mixmash of reality/game show concepts. Whatever does the best in the summer will get the slot. At 9 I have The Biggest Loser which is on its last legs. This lineup certainly won't win the night but it should provide good counterprogramming for ABC.

Monday: 8 PM-Deal or No Deal, 9 PM-Kidnapped, 9 PM-Medium
Monday's should be a solid night for NBC. The hit game show Deal or No Deal leads off the night. One of the most anticipated new dramas, Kidnapped, should do well at 9 and Medium's been solid at 10 in the past.

Tuesday: 8 PM-Scrubs, 8:30 PM-Andy Barker, P.I., 9 PM-Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip, 10 PM-Law & Order: Special Victim's Unit
Scrubs and Andy Barker, P.I. should be a nice combo to lead off the night. Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip should be a huge hit at 9 PM (as long as NBC markets it well). Law & Order: Special Victim's Unit has been NBC's lone success on Tuesdays of late. This night was a trouble spot in 05-06 but I think this mix of old and new could increase viewership.

Wednesday: 8 PM-Heroes, 9 PM-The Black Donnellys, 10 PM-Law & Order
This night of dramas could potentially change Wednesday's from a trouble spot to a highlight of NBC's schedule. Heroes should be a collossal hit. I see Lost written all over this show. The Black Donnellys is a decent companion to Law & Order, which still draws viewers but is starting to show its age.

Thursday: 8 PM-My Name Is Earl, 8:30 PM-20 Good Years, 9 PM-The Office, 9:30 PM-100 Things To Do Before I Die, 10 PM-ER
With The Office starting to become a hit itself, I think NBC can move it to provide a nice lead in to another show. 20 Good Years is an almost sure pickup and it looks like a great companion to My Name Is Earl. 100 Things To Do Before I Die looks like a great idea for a reality show but it isn't a great fit for The Office. Unfortunately, this is the only place it fits. ER could possibly be moved but I think its viewership is solid enough to stick around for one more year on Thursdays.

Friday: 8 PM-Deal or No Deal, 9 PM-Crossing Jordan, 10 PM-Law & Order: Criminal Intent
This isn't the best place for solid shows like Crossing Jordan and Law & Order: Criminal Intent but this is the only place for them until January. If their numbers drop, I would move them back to Sundays once football is over. Deal or No Deal should still have good enough numbers for two viewings a week.

Saturday: 8 PM-Deal or No Deal/Law & Order repeats, 9 PM-Movies or Law & Order repeats
I don't know if NBC wants to put Deal or No Deal on its schedule three times a week but if they do, I think they could get decent numbers on Saturdays. Otherwise, Law & Order repeats will likely fill up this night.

January Shows: Friday Night Lights, Lipstick Jungle, and possibly Surface.
Friday Night Lights would be a nice show to put on in the fall but I don't know if there is room. Lipstick Jungle looks like a hit but once again, there isn't room for it. Surface has enough cult viewers that I still think NBC will give it a second season.

Closing-Even though NBC has had a nightmare season, the prospects look pretty good for the fall. Likely hits like Heroes, Kidnapped, and Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip will be all over NBC's schedule. I expect this to be NBC's renaissance year.